Carmarthenshire election wrap, part 2: Llanboidy to Llangunnor

LLANBOIDY: Roy Llewellyn (444) was uncontested in 2008, but this Plaid councillor faced a stiff challenge from Independent Mark Davies (393) this time.

LLANDDAROG: No-one bothered veteran Independent member Wyn Evans (516) in 2008, either. Plaid found a suitable stalking horse in 2012, though; Simon Martin (360) established a suitable platform for next time.

LLANDEILO: Palmer-Independent Mike Williams (436) lost in a hard-fought battle with über-Independent Gwynne Thomas (466), ever resplendent in his lucky striped blazer. Plaid's Dai Williams (299) came a creditable 3rd and the Tory got 66.

LLANDOVERY: Ivor Jackson (Independent, 518), the outgoing, ever-dependent on the CBE Chief Executive, Chair of Council had to fight an election this year. Tory Andrew Morgan (208) couldn't come close, though, with Plaid (167) coming 3rd to another Independent (164).

LLANDYBIE: Both the old-timers, the two Anthonys Davies (Independent, 909) and Jones (Labour, 658), returned safely to the council chamber. Plaid's Karen Denise Davies (489) increased her party's vote, with three others trailing far behind.

LLANEGWAD: Last year's by-election propelled retired FUW man Mansel Charles (Plaid, 612) to the castle in a straight fight with Independent Clive Pugh (508) by a margin 39 votes. A slightly more comfortable ride in 2012, then.

LLANFIHANGEL ABERBYTHYCH: A victory was never in doubt for new Plaid Cymru councillor Cefin Campbell (468). Independent Ken Griffiths garnered 221 votes, whereas the Tory (63) vote was less than half 2008's.

LLANFIHANGEL-AR-ARTH: This year's highest vote tally went to Plaid Cymru's popular councillor Linda Evans (1074). Her sacrificial lamb was Tory Douglas Spragg (137).

LLANGADOG: A real tussel on the Black Mountain as Independent Andrew James (475) ousted the sitting Independent councillor Huw Morgan (439). Plaid (89) came a distant 3rd.

LLANGELER: Independent John Wigley (606) put up a strong fight against Plaid Cymru here, but new councillor Ken Howell (793) won through.

LLANGENNECH: Plaid's Cymru's majority was somewhat down, but Gwyneth Thomas (889) and William Gwyn Hopkin (757) easily dispatched Labour's Darkin (535) and Akhtar (439) duo.

LLANGUNNOR: Elwyn Williams (573) finally captured this seat for Plaid against new Independent candidate David John Watson (395) in a keenly fought contest.

Carmarthenshire election wrap, part 1: Abergwili to Laugharne Township

ABERGWILI: Independent czarina Pam Palmer (600) held off a heroic effort by Plaid's retired consultant paediatrican Dewi Evans (436), but with a greatly reduced majority.

AMMANFORD: Labour's wafer thin 6 vote majority was overturned; Plaid's Deian Harries (480) snaffling this one from Chris Jones (455).

BETWS: A three-way marginal last time around. Independent Eira Jones (274, the exact same vote as 2008) yielded the seat to retired Maths teacher, Ryan Bartlett (Labour, 325). Plaid lost ground to finish 3rd (155).

BIGYN: A double Labour gain from Plaid Cymru: Eryl Morgan (609) and Jeff Edmunds (565) trumping outging councillors Mike Burns (523) and Dyfrig Thomas (518).

BURRY PORT: Independent Stephen James (622), who topped the 2008 was ousted by Labour's Jack James (634). First place went to veteran Labour cabinet member Pat Jones (741).

BYNEA: A shock defeat for Independent cabinet member Gwynne Wooldrige (328) to Labour's Deryk Cundy (440). Turnout, though, was below 24%.

CARMARTHEN TOWN NORTH: Plus ça change: Plaid group leader Peter Hughes Griffiths (824) and Gareth Owen Jones (657) both re-elected, but the turnout here fell from over 44% to below 39%.

CARMARTHEN TOWN SOUTH: All change here, though: sitting member Steve Dunn (Independent, 285) lost his seat, whilst Plaid have two brand new councillors in former press and broadcast reporter Alun Lenny (454) and Jeffrey Thomas (441). New Independent candidate Jenny Fox (398) came a creditable 3rd.

CARMARTHEN TOWN WEST: Plaid's sweep of the county town was completed as Alan Speake (888) was re-elected, with Tom Defis (658) as his junior. Arthur Davies (512), one half of the People First duo, was dumped by the electors.

CENARTH: A triumph for Plaid's 2010 by-election winner Hazel Evans (670). A lacklustre campaign by Tory Henrietta Hensher (97) augers badly for future Conservative chances.

CILYCWM: Wily Independent committee chair Tom Theophilus (307) evaded ejection from blogger and transparency campaigner Jacqui Thompson (264) and another Tory (136).

CYNWYL ELFED: A tight contest here gave victory to Independent Irfon Jones (678) over Plaid Cymru's Glyn Evans (631).

CYNWYL GAEO: Eirwyn Williams (520) of Plaid Cymru was unopposed in 2008, and may as well have been in 2012, too. The Tory garnered 117 votes.

DAFEN: Tegwen Davichand (513) significantly increased her majority for Labour over plaid Cymru's Mohammad Choudry (178).

ELLI: The only contest here was for second place between Plaid (203) and Labour (192). The Independent John Jenkins (503), meanwhile, was comfortably returned for another term.

FELINFOEL: Hugh Richards (258) was given another term as an Independent councillor, but Labour's Henry John Evans (215) took a big chunk out of his majority.

GARNANT: Labour Deputy-Leader Kevin Madge (590) swept back to Carmarthen gaol on an increased majority over Plaid's Emyr Williams (149).

GLANAMMAN: At the other end of Heol Cwmaman, Plaid got the honours as David Jenkins (478) gained a comfortable win over Labour twitterer and temporary resident Shahid Hussain (248).

GLANYMOR: Plaid Cymru's Winston Lemon (571) topped the poll again, but 2008's second councillor John Jones (Independent, 298) was pushed into 5th place. Labour's Louvain Roberts (520) captured the 2nd seat, with her comrade Joanne Yeo (485) in 3rd.

GLYN: No doubt here; an Independent hold for Jim Jones (520) incresing his majority over Labour (126) and a Tory (97).

GORSLAS: When the dust settled here, Labour top dog Terry Davies (850) remained at number 1, but the old Independent seat vacated by Clive Scourfield was nabbed by Plaid's Darren Price (762). Ex-rugby bruiser and Scourfield's hier apparent Rupert Moon (508) had to be content with 3rd.

HENDY: Another shocker as Labour's sitting member Steve Lloyd-Janes (411) yielded a 229 vote majority as he lost to Plaid's Gareth Beynon Thomas (422).

HENGOED: The early reckoning had People First's Sian Caiach (337) losing her seat. She's back in the council as her party's sole member, though. Labour's George Edwards (338) topped the poll by a single vote, gaining a seat over Plaid's top placed candidate Mike Evans (315). Only 85 votes separated the top 5 candidates in this tight contest.

KIDWELLY: An easy victory for Labour's re-elected councillor Keith Davies (571). His nearest rival was Independent Fran Burke-Lloyd (238).

LAUGHARNE TOWNSHIP: Jane Tremlett (714) maintained her iron Independent grip on this seat over Labour's Jean Myers (228).

To follow in Part 2: Llanboidy to Whitland.

Electoral Reform in Wales? Same old Labour hegemony

Politicians of all hues have been much exercised over the last few days with the vexed issue of electoral reform. The Lib Dems favour replacing our system of election on the basis of plurality (the candidate with most votes in a constituency wins) with a more proportional system.

On May 6th, our first-past-the-post system yielded the following share of seats in Wales:

British National Party 0

Conservatives 8

Labour 26

Liberal Democrats 3

Plaid Cymru 3

UKIP 0

If we adopted the fully proportional system used in European elections with one 40 seat constituency for Wales, the result would have been dramatically different:

British National Party 1 (+1)

Conservatives 10 (+2)

Labour 14 (-12)

Liberal Democrats 9 (+6)

Plaid Cymru 5 (+2)

UKIP 1 (+1)

This is based the fairly unlikely assumptions that voters would vote in the same way with PR as they did with FPTP. However, the smaller fringe parties would possibly achieve more seats under PR. Neither the BNP nor the Green Party, for example, fought every seat in Wales. Furthermore, a good deal of tactical voting was evident in some parliamentary seats and supporters of parties expected to achieve healthy majorities may have stayed at home.

Nevertheless, this exercise gives a good indication of the major changes in our representation in Westminster under a fully proportion system.

Both Labour and Conservative leaders have thrown a third option into the ring, that of the Alternative Vote. Again, assuming that voters would act in the same way under AV as under FPTP would be unwise but, ceteris paribus, my predictions for the May 6th election would be as follows:

Aberavon LAB (1st round, 52%)

Aberconwy CON (4th round)

Alyn & Deeside LAB (3rd round)

Arfon LAB (3rd round)

Blaenau Gwent LAB (1st round, 52%)

Brecon & Radnorshire LD (2nd round)

Bridgend LAB (3rd round)

Caerphilly LAB (3rd round)

Cardiff Central LD (3rd round)

Cardiff North LAB (2nd round)

Cardiff South & Penarth LAB (3rd round)

Cardiff West LAB (3rd round)

Carmarthen East & Dinefwr PC (3rd round)

Carmarthen W & Pembs S CON (4th round)

Ceredigion LD (1st round, 50%)

Clwyd South LAB (3rd round)

Clwyd West CON (3rd round)

Cynon Valley LAB (1st round, 52%)

Delyn LAB (2nd round)

Dwyfor Meirionydd PC (3rd round)

Gower LAB (3rd round)

Islwyn LAB (2nd round)

Llanelli LAB (2nd round)

Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney LAB (2nd round)

Monmouth CON (2nd round)

Mongomeryshire CON (2nd round)

Neath LAB (2nd round)

Newport East LD (2nd round)

Newport West LAB (2nd round)

Ogmore LAB (1st round, 54%)

Pontypridd LAB (2nd round)

Preseli Pembrokeshire CON (2nd round)

Rhondda LAB (1st round, 55%)

Swansea East LAB (1st round, 51%)

Swansea West LD (2nd round)

Torfaen LAB (2nd round)

Vale of Clwyd LAB (2nd round)

Vale of Glamorgan CON (2nd round)

Wrexham LAB (3rd round)

Ynys Môn PC (3rd round)

After a hugely complicated exercise for voters and counters, therefore, the net result would be barely different from May 6th:

British National Party 0

Conservatives 7 (-1)

Labour 25 (-1)

Liberal Democrats 5 (+2)

Plaid Cymru 3

UKIP 0

In other words, AV would be only slightly more proportional than FPTP. The voters of 5 constituencies would have woken up on Friday morning to find themselves represented by MPs of different parties but Labour would still be massively over-represented at the expense of every other party.